The AFL Betting Strategy that is dominating the bookies this season
Along with the usual extensive research and deep analysis on every game line and player market, spotting the lines that the bookies have got wrong early is a very solid way to maximise your profits. This year, for the AFL season, our AFL betting strategy is taking advantage of the lines and odds at more than one bookie.
The reason for this is simply more choices in markets will give you higher odds and opportunities to take advantage of discrepancies, that will ultimately generate better value and profit.
How often is it that your bet goes down by a single point? or you jump on a line that was much lower or higher a few days before? These are the most frustrating things of any AFL betting which could be simply avoided by having a solid and proven AFL betting strategy.
What makes a massive difference to any betting strategy and especially the AFL is getting on the bookmaker that provides the best “line” or “total” for that game.
- A recent example of this was our 3 stake bet on the game total under 184.5 in he Greater Western Sydney Giants vs North Melbourne Kangaroos . We placed the bet with Luxbet. The line moved to as low as 170.5 on all bookies.
In order for this AFL betting strategy to work and maximise value, you must be able to find the lines and predict any movements. That’s where we come in!
Early lines (like above) and having the smarts to look in the right places also can create what is called a MIDDLING OPPORTUNITY
Some may tell you that middling bets require too much luck to nail, which is true but so what!.. The difference is our AFL handicapper finds them, and no one else does. So with them you have no chance. PLUS, by weighting our staking towards the most likely outcome, we get 1 of 3 outcomes of which 2 result in profit: (1) middle hits = BANG; (2) weighted outcome hits = small profit; (3) least likely outcome hits = small loss.
Two examples below show recent middling bet wins during Round 12 (weighting can also be seen).
ROUND 12 – Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks
- Patrick Dangerfield over 100.5 dream team points ($1.87) | STAKE: 7 units
- Patrick Dangerfield under 110.5 dream team points ($1.87) | STAKE: 4.5 units
Profit = 10.01 units
ROUND 12 – Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions
- Dayne Beams over 96.5 dream team points ($1.68) | STAKE: 6 units
- Dayne Beams under 106.5 dream team points ($1.80) | STAKE: 3 units
Profit = 6.48 units
So as you can see by using this middling AFL betting strategy we are better placed to maximize our profit.
The bookmaker agencies we will be using for all our AFL betting tips and suggest you use them throughout the year will be:
- Bet365 – Provides a lot of markets and has fantastic alternative lines/totals.
- Centrebet – Offers plenty of markets and player performance markets
- Ladbrokes –Has fantastic promotional bets during the year ($2 favourites thank you) anda selection of player prop markets
- Sportsbet – Provides plenty of markets and has incredible promotional bets (check AFL RD 1-8 & the AFL Multi Cash Back promotions)
- Luxbet – Provide some great player prop markets and typically sets their lines a little different to some others.. Middle anyone?
- William Hill – Massive range of markets and great promotional offers to take advantage of during the season.
- CrownBet –Same again, abigselection of lines and taking advantage of the promotional offers to either maximize our profits or limit any loss using cash back promotions.
- TAB – Not used for much; however they do throw out so crazy player prop lines on occasion that offer massive middle opportunities. Worth having for those big days.
You’ll need an account with all the bookies above to ensure you make the biggest profit from this AFL betting strategy for many years to come.
It’s time to bash some bookies and get some extra coin in your pocket before Christmas